Normal, or above normal, Tropical Cyclone activity is expected over the coral sea which includes New Caledonia, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu this coming cyclone season. It is also likely that there will be normal to below normal Tropical Cyclone activity for the rest of the south Pacific region.
This was concluded from the Fifteenth Session of the Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum (PICOF15) convened by members of the Pacific Regional Climate Centre - Network including the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services across the region. PICOF15 was held as our Pacific Islands region approaches our wet, and tropical cyclone, season which is from November 2024 to April 2025.
“Our Pacific communities are advised to always remain vigilant,” said Mr Salesa Nihmei, Meteorology and Climatology Adviser from the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP).
“We all know from experience that it does not take a direct hit or severe Tropical Cyclone to cause considerable damage or life-threatening weather. In the past, tropical disturbances and depressions alone have caused significant damage in the region.”
Historically, the average number of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) in the southwest pacific region is seven with the average number of severe TCs is three. Similarly, TCs have occurred out of season during the months of May, June and October in the past.
In the last Typhoon season from April to October 2024, the northwest Pacific recorded 21 typhoons of which five were major typhoons. Similarly, the southwest pacific region experienced nine TCs with five of these classified as severe from November 2023 to April 2024. Tropical Cyclone Lola was a Category 5 which affected the southern part of Solomon Islands and Vanuatu with Several Tropical Cyclone Mal a Category three which affected Fiji.
“As Pacific Islanders we are vulnerable to the weather extremes. Many of us have lived through tropical cyclones and fully understand the power of these,” said Mr Nihmei.
“We urge our communities to always be prepared and take heed of warnings and advice of your local meteorological service, or disaster management office. Let’s all remain as safe as can be this Tropical Cyclone season.”
The PICOF15 was held from 14 to 15 October in Tonga, the result of a collaborative partnership between SPREP and the World Meteorological Organization, with technical support provided by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, the Pacific Community, Meteo-France, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, together with the Pacific Islands Climate Services Panel for the Pacific Meteorological Council.
For more information, please contact Mr Philip Malsale at [email protected].