Climate Change Resilience
Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for November 2015 – April 2016 (NDJFMA), indicates the mature phase of El-Niño episode and will remain in place into the first half of 2016.
Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:
1. Forecast for November 2015 – January 2016
Probability for above normal temperature is predicted strongly enhanced in central and northern Polynesia, north-eastern Melanesia and eastern Micronesia. Below normal temperature is most likely in southern Polynesia and south-eastern Melanesia. Strongly enhanced probability for above normal rainfalls is predicted for equatorial belt of Polynesia and south-eastern Micronesia and north-eastern Melanesia. Area of strongly enhanced probability for below normal precipitation spans most of Micronesia and Melanesia and southern Polynesia.
Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperature is predicted for southern Micronesia, most of Melanesia and equatorial Polynesia. For northern Micronesia and northern and southern Polynesia no signal is predicted. Strongly enhanced probability for above normal rainfalls is predicted for southern Micronesia, northern Melanesia and equatorial Polynesia. Strongly enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is predicted for central and and northern Micronesia and northern Polynesia. For most of Melanesia and southern Polynesia probability of below normal precipitation is also enhanced.
For more details visit: http://www.apcc21.org/eng/service/6mon/ps/japcc030703.jsp
Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:
1. Forecast for November 2015 – January 2016
Probability for above normal temperature is predicted strongly enhanced in central and northern Polynesia, north-eastern Melanesia and eastern Micronesia. Below normal temperature is most likely in southern Polynesia and south-eastern Melanesia. Strongly enhanced probability for above normal rainfalls is predicted for equatorial belt of Polynesia and south-eastern Micronesia and north-eastern Melanesia. Area of strongly enhanced probability for below normal precipitation spans most of Micronesia and Melanesia and southern Polynesia.
Figure 1: Precipitation for November 2015-January 2016 and February-April 2016.
2. Forecast for February – April 2016Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperature is predicted for southern Micronesia, most of Melanesia and equatorial Polynesia. For northern Micronesia and northern and southern Polynesia no signal is predicted. Strongly enhanced probability for above normal rainfalls is predicted for southern Micronesia, northern Melanesia and equatorial Polynesia. Strongly enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is predicted for central and and northern Micronesia and northern Polynesia. For most of Melanesia and southern Polynesia probability of below normal precipitation is also enhanced.
For more details visit: http://www.apcc21.org/eng/service/6mon/ps/japcc030703.jsp