Climate Change Resilience
The tropical Pacific Ocean is still warmer than usual over and west of the dateline, but not by enough to be defined as in an El Niño state.
While some parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean are almost 1 degree Celsius warmer than expected for this time of year, the surface wind patterns in this region are close to normal for this time of year. It is looking more unlikely that an El Niño will develop this southern hemisphere summer season.
Near normal rainfall is predicted across the Pacific over the coming three months, with slightly less than average expected for the Southern Cook Islands, New Caledonia and Vanuatu.
During strong El Niño years (for example 1998) the sea surface temperature increases in the equatorial Pacific around the dateline, and the easterly tradewinds in the same region are weaker than usual. This can lead to more rainfall than usual in the central, equatorial Pacific, and dryer than usual conditions (and sometimes drought) in the far western Pacific and away from the equator. This pattern is reversed during La Niña years.
The Island Climate Update is produced by the Pacific Island Meteorological Services, NIWA and SPREP. Please contact your local meteorological service or see www.islandclimateupdate.net for more details.