Heading into the southern hemisphere summer, signals of an El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean are easing, and near normal rainfall conditions are expected across the Pacific.
Although the tropical Pacific Ocean is still warmer than normal east of the Dateline, it is less so than a month ago. Easterly wind patterns across the tropical Pacific have not shown any signs of weakening. A warmer than usual equatorial ocean and weaker trade winds than normal are typical signatures of an El Niño.
The chances of an El Niño this summer are decreasing, and if one does occur it will probably be weak and short-lived.
Rainfall along the equator in the central and eastern Pacific is expected to be slightly higher than normal, while slightly drier than normal conditions are forecast further south for a region extending from Papua New Guinea to the Southern Cook Islands.
Tonga and Niue have recently been on drought watches. While November is the start of the wet season for these two countries, over the next three months Tonga can expect a little less rain than usual for the start of the wet season and Niue can expect nearly normal rainfall.
Guidance on the upcoming tropical cyclone season will be issued later this month.
The Island Climate Update is produced by the Pacific Island Meteorological Services, NIWA and SPREP. Please contact your local meteorological service or see www.islandclimateupdate.net for more details.
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